The annual speculation surrounding potential retirements from the U.S. Supreme Court has once again surfaced, with Justice Samuel Alito emerging as a focal point amidst this year’s discussions. Each spring, questions arise regarding which justice might next depart the high court. As historical precedents show, justices have traditionally exited the Supreme Court through retirement, death, or removal following impeachment, though the latter is exceedingly rare.
Since 1954, only three justices have died in office, underscoring that retirement remains the predominant path of departure. Impeachment, though sensational when invoked, has resulted in only one historical acquittal. The scenario points to retirement as the more common route, facilitated by the Judiciary Act of 1869, which introduced pension benefits for retiring justices over the age of 70, provided they have served for at least a decade. Over time, legislative changes, as noted by Steve Vladeck, further adapted these conditions to allow justices to maintain certain privileges such as salary, office space, and a law clerk post-retirement.
- Justice Sandra Day O’Connor, influenced by personal circumstances, resigned to care for her husband diagnosed with Alzheimer’s.
- Justice David Souter opted for a quiet departure in 2009, providing a succinct letter to President Obama without need for public justification.
- Justice Anthony Kennedy’s 2018 retirement was to devote more time to his family, following over three decades of service, preceding his announced departure by a letter to President Trump.
Political considerations are undeniably part of the calculus when justices decide to step down. Research indicates that the likelihood of retirement increases if a sitting president, sharing the nominating president’s party, can appoint a successor in the early part of the term (study).
As Justice Stephen Breyer’s recent retirement indicated, external advocacy and political strategy can further influence justices’ decisions, nuanced by broader political landscapes such as allowing a politically aligned president to appoint a similarly oriented successor. In this arena, speculation driven by legal analysts and commentators remains an annual fixture, even as the potential departure of a justice like Alito could shift the court’s dynamics notably, depending both on timing and ensuing nominations.