The Supreme Court term for 2022 concluded this June, followed by justices taking their respective summer vacations and breaks. Some ventured on holidays, while others opted to teach in various locations, both in and outside the USA. Despite the justices being on break, it transpires that attention was also given to establishing ethical guidelines for the Court by the justices themselves, an unusual summer assignment.
The unenviable task of wading through cert petitions, which typically involve proposals for the end of the summer long conference, falls on the justices’ clerks, many of whom are at the start of their clerkships. Oral arguments at the Supreme Court usually commence on the first Monday in October, which this year coincides with October 2nd.
The conference slated for September 26th nears, offering a challenging workload for the Supreme Court clerks: namely, to review just under 1,000 petitions. The Court generally grants more petitions from long conferences than from any other conference across the term. This busy period for the clerks and the justices reviews approximately three months’ worth of petitions, which were all filed between late June and late September. Last year saw nine grants for arguments after the long conference.
Indicators of a petition’s likelihood of being granted include cases involving elite counsel with high historical grant rates. For instance, two such petitions are presently listed for Paul Clement and another for Lisa Blatt, while Kannon Shanmugam has filed one petition. There seems to be a strong correlation between cases featuring these elite attorneys and stages involving certificates of amicus curiae (‘friend of the court’).
Moving from petitions to granted cases, one fact is evident: apart from those from the Solicitor General’s Office, no attorneys are currently representing multiple cases. Among those on the counsel of upcoming cases, some names stand out, including former Solicitors General Paul Clement and Noel Francisco, along with lawyers Shay Dvoretzky and Adam Unikowsky.
According to predictions, two pending petitions with major impact, ‘Loper Bright’ and ‘Rahimi’, have the potential to capture significant public attention with their verdict outcomes concerning administrative agency deference and gun rights respectively.
Complete understanding of this term presents itself only once the long conference and several future conferences end. Tried and tested methods for predicting the cases that have a higher likelihood of being granted exist, from recognising elite attorneys to identifying multiple amicus briefs. Regardless of these factors, the justices’ and their clerks’ attention may also be drawn to cases that operate under less scrutiny.
Details provided by Jake Truscott contributed to this article. Adam Feldman operates the litigation consulting company Optimized Legal Solutions LLC. Connect with him on Twitter.
Find more information in the original article: Two Pieces To The Puzzle: Long Conference Petitions And Granted Cases For OT 2023