Is impeachment on the horizon for President Joseph Biden? Predictions are swirling, as noted in a recent Above the Law article by Mark Herrmann, the deputy general counsel at a large international company.
If the Republicans control the House of Representatives following the 2022 mid-term elections, an impeachment vote may be slated for early next year, possibly in February or March. The prediction asserts that the impeachment vote is more likely an act of political gamesmanship than a reflection of any substantive violations by the President.
The reasoning behind this is straightforward. With Donald Trump likely to be nominated as the Republican presidential candidate again, Democrats have ammunition to use against him in their campaign rhetoric. After all, Trump has been twice impeached, indicted four times, and even found civilly liable for sexual assault.
The Republicans’ best way to steal the Democrats’ thunder? Impeach their opponent as well, rendering their impeachment barbs against Trump less impactful.
Speculation suggests that Speaker of the House Mike Johnson may come under pressure from more contentious factions of the Republican Party to hold a vote on impeaching Biden. This could lead to nearly 200 votes in favor right off the bat. The party would only need to secure about 18 more votes to achieve a majority.
It is probable, according to Herrmann, that Republicans will indeed secure the necessary votes, despite potential hesitation from Republicans in districts won by Biden in 2022 or those not seeking re-election in 2024. Key to this outcome is the influence of Donald Trump, whose endorsement – or threat of public criticism – carries significant weight.
As for what Biden might be impeached for, Herrmann explains that the question may be entirely irrelevant. Possible reasons cited in public discourse range from policy disputes concerning Afghanistan, the border, COVID, and energy policy, to unsavory business dealings by Biden’s family members. Yet, none of these meet the constitutional grounds for impeachment, and thus would represent a political, rather than legal, move.
As always, the wheel of political maneuver continues its inexorable turn, with impeachment potentially representing just one more tool in the toolbox of political rivalry.