Donald Trump, the controversial ex-president with a reputation for making grand claims, made a particularly noteworthy promise during his tenure. He assured the nation that his policies would generate an annual economic growth of more than 3%. However, according to data from his presidency, pre-pandemic, the average quarterly economic growth rate calculated to a mere 2.5%. This figure, interestingly, is almost identical to the growth observed during Obama’s second tenure. Notwithstanding a few quarterly spikes, sustained growth of the promised magnitude was never achieved.
The overall Gross Domestic Product (GDP) under Trump’s term experienced a modest growth of 1.6%, marking the lowest growth rate since the presidency of Herbert Hoover – though attributing the economic impact of the pandemic entirely to Trump might not paint a complete picture.
Contrastingly, under the helm of President Joe Biden, the latest quarterly growth rate stands at a robust 5.2%. Even though the year 2023 still waits for its final figures, the first year of the Biden administration witnessed the US economy expanding by 5.7%, marking the most significant economic expansion since 1984. Thus, the growth rate under Biden’s presidency not only exhibited rapid acceleration but also showed sustained performance – fulfilling a promise that Trump had once made but failed to deliver.
However, to understand the comprehensive health of an economy goes beyond these numbers. Some might argue that the high inflation under Biden puts a dent in his economic performance. Granted, inflation was an issue; however, the Federal Reserve seems to have stabilized inflation now. It is unwise to singularly attribute the state of an economy to one metric.
When judged on specific claims and promises, Trump’s pronouncement of generating economic growth significantly above 3% falls short. Biden, on the other hand, not only met that mark but exceeded it. However, economic growth is a complex, multifactorial phenomenon and, often, beyond a president’s full control. But when Trump is evaluated by a standard he set, it seems fair to acknowledge his failure and Biden’s subsequent success on the same promise.
Interestingly, despite the data-laden reality, the narrative that Trump’s economic policies were superior still persists – polls continue to indicate that more Americans trust Trump’s economic strategies over Biden’s. An economic promise has become a divisive and defining issue, underscoring the power of perception in shaping public opinion and ultimately, the course of a nation’s policy.
Written by Jonathan Wolf, author of Your Debt-Free JD – a civil litigator and legal writer with a keen interest in financial and scientific literacy. Views expressed are his own. Contact him at: jon_wolf@hotmail.com.