Armenia’s Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, announced on Tuesday that the country may concede four frontier villages to Azerbaijan, effectively returning to its Soviet-era borders. This action is viewed as part of an earnest attempt to avoid conflict.
During a visit to the border provinces of Tavush Marz, Pashinyan made it clear that Armenia was prepared to do whatever was necessary to prevent another conflict. The Prime Minister warned residents that failure to resolve disagreements over the contested villages might lead to a war with Azerbaijan “by the end of the week”.
The pressure on Armenia is due in part to a series of losses by Armenia’s armed forces, not least the fallout from the 2020 Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and the 2023 clash leading to the dissolution of Nagorno-Karabakh. This largely Armenian-populated territory, claimed by Azerbaijan, has been held by Armenia since 1994.
Since the 2018 Armenian Revolution, the country has strived to reduce its dependence on traditional ally Russia, making relations between the two nations increasingly strained. In response to Prime Minister Pashinyan’s attempt to pivot away from Moscow, Russia dropped its security guarantees for Armenia. Armenia then announced in February that it was suspending its participation in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation.
In response to escalating tensions, Jens Stoltenberg issued a statement supporting Armenia’s “sovereignty and territorial integrity”, but stopped short of providing specific guarantees against further Azeri incursions.