The Supreme Court has recently been paying significant attention to 5th Circuit decisions, as evidenced by its notable consideration of the case between the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau (CFPB) and the fluctuating outcomes. Such pattern is also observed in another administrative agency review involving 5th Circuit, the case of SEC v Jarkesy where oral arguments concluded on November 29, 2023.
In an effort to predict the possible outcomes, the technology, Optimized Legal Audio (OLA) was deployed to assess the oral arguments in order to identify possible leanings of judges. OLA uses predictive indicators to provide preemptive insights into the decisions. The technology had proven useful in several state and federal judiciaries, including the Supreme Court where audio of the proceedings was accessible.
However, the limitations of the OLA platform are also acknowledged. Its predictive capacity heavily relies on the spirited debates between the judges and attorneys. In cases where dialogues are limited, the predictive potential becomes notably hindered. This was observed during the Warner Chappelle Music v. Nealy case where the limited oral arguments made it impossible for a meaningful conclusion.
In the Jarkesy case, on the other hand, all justices actively participated in interactions with arguing attorneys, allowing OLA to predict potential votes based on oral arguments. The technology took into account the audio, transcript, and delivery to detect signs that hinted at decision-making.
The analysis predicted a 6-3 decision favoring Jarkesy over SEC. The level of intensity from each of the justices was high and reflective of the magnitude of the decision. However, these predictions should be taken with a grain of salt as the ultimate outcome will only be declared officially by the Supreme Court.
More on OLA and the Jarkesy case analysis can be found at Empirical SCOTUS.