The upcoming 2024 election has significant implications for the healthcare industry, tackling issues ranging from abortion to drug pricing. During the recent Reuters Total Health Conference held in Chicago, Ceci Connolly, CEO of the Alliance of Community Health Plans, outlined five key considerations healthcare leaders should keep in mind as the election approaches.
- The election dynamics: “Trump’s to lose”
Former President Donald Trump initially had the advantage in this election cycle. However, following President Joe Biden’s decision not to run, Vice President Kamala Harris emerged as the Democratic nominee, gaining significant momentum. Connolly emphasized that the determining factor in the race is “the way that Trump behaves.” According to her, the race is currently “tied dead even,” with particular attention needed on polling in the seven pivotal swing states.
- Divided government may benefit healthcare
The upcoming election could lead to the House flipping to Democratic control, while Republicans may gain control of the Senate. Connolly argues that a divided government could be beneficial for the healthcare sector by reducing unpredictability and constant regulatory changes. If the Democrats win the House, they might also extend enhanced subsidies under the Affordable Care Act, currently set to expire in 2025, thus affecting the uninsured rate in the U.S.
- Court rulings as the new “playing field” for healthcare policy
In a recent move, the Supreme Court overturned the Chevron deference, which had allowed federal agencies to interpret and implement regulations more flexibly. This could lead to increased legal challenges to existing regulations, particularly from well-funded industry players, indicating a new dynamic where courts are increasingly influential in shaping healthcare policy.
- Potential legislative actions during the lame duck period
With an expected turnover in government personnel, lawmakers may aim to pass certain policies during the lame duck period. Key areas of focus could include extending telehealth flexibilities, addressing pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs), and tackling pharmaceutical companies’ use of patent thickets that impede the entry of more affordable drugs into the market.
- Similarities between Harris and Trump in healthcare
Connolly noted that despite apparent differences, Harris and Trump share certain similarities in their healthcare policies. Neither has demonstrated strong passion or extended records in health policy, with a probable focus on the economy and immigration over healthcare issues. On drug pricing, however, it is expected that Trump may attempt to surpass initiatives from the current administration, viewing it as a key populist issue.
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