As the dust settles from the latest presidential election, speculation builds over President-elect Donald Trump’s potential nominees for the U.S. Supreme Court bench. Notably, his first term cemented a conservative 6-3 majority following the appointments of Justices Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett. While Trump’s opportunity for similar impact in a second term may be limited, two veteran justices—Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito—could potentially retire, paving the way for Trump to appoint younger, conservative replacements.
Rob Luther, a law professor at George Mason University who worked on judicial nominations during Trump’s first term, stated that judges were among the most effective policy implementations of that administration. Trump’s ability to sway the judiciary could further cement a conservative foothold across future decades.
Currently, with Republicans holding 53 seats in the Senate, the path to confirmation for conservative candidates is viable even amidst some dissent among GOP ranks. A nominee from the federal appeals courts appears likely; after all, eight of the nine current justices hailed from this legal echelon, and Trump himself has contributed over 50 judges to these courts.
Among the potential successors, if Justice Thomas were to vacate his role, Sixth Circuit Judge Amul Thapar and Fifth Circuit Judge James Ho emerge as strong contenders. Both are well-regarded within conservative circles and would each mark a historic appointment as the first Asian American justice. Thapar’s close association with Thomas through his written works and Ho’s direct clerkship experience bolster their candidacies. On the other hand, with a Justice Alito vacancy, Fifth Circuit Judge Andrew Oldham, known for his conservative jurisprudence and past clerkship under Alito, could be a candidate.
While established frontrunners are at the helm, the prospect of a surprise nominee remains. Ninth Circuit Judge Patrick Bumatay is a speculative dark horse, holding potential for significant historic impact as the first openly gay and Asian American justice, as noted by Sarah Isgur on the “Advisory Opinions” podcast.
Trump’s tendency for dramatic reveals, akin to his earlier nominations of Gorsuch and Kavanaugh, signals that the anticipation may build beyond the conventional forecasts. Whether opting for established names like Judges Neomi Rao, Steven Menashi, Kyle Duncan, Lawrence VanDyke, or exploring other realms with figures such as former US Solicitor General Noel Francisco, it’s clear Trump faces the selection with what some may view as a favorable array of candidates.
The potential departures and subsequent nominations prompt a crucial era for the Supreme Court, underscoring shifting dynamics that will have both legal and societal implications for years to come.