Following intense negotiations lasting into the early morning, European Union environment ministers have set a revised 2040 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions target. The decision, announced just ahead of the upcoming COP30 UN Climate Change Conference in Belém, Brazil on November 10, establishes a crucial legal framework for aligning the EU’s climate objectives leading up to 2050.
This agreement serves as a strategic link between the EU’s 2030 and 2050 climate goals, steering towards the ultimate aim of achieving climate neutrality by mid-century. The ministers confirmed the 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), as mandated by the Paris Agreement. This NDC includes a non-legally binding target to reduce emissions by 66.25 to 72.5 percent below 1990 levels. Discussions at COP30 will closely examine this target, now enshrined in the EU’s policy strategy. The ambition to cut net GHG emissions by 90 percent by 2040 is now formalized, although reaching a qualified majority necessitated giving member states certain flexibilities, viewed by some as a dilution of the proposal. This detailed development is highlighted in JURIST.
Climate Action Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra clarified that while the legally binding headline target for 2040 is a 90 percent reduction, the actual domestic aim is 85 percent. To cover the gap, an additional 5 percent would be offset using international carbon credits, allowing industries to mitigate domestic emissions. If the EU falls behind its target, an extra 5 percent of credits may be utilized.
The concessions were deemed necessary to address concerns over competitiveness and social balance, with German Environment Minister Carsten Schneider emphasizing the importance of integrating environmental and economic policies, especially given the challenges posed by international competition. Romania also stressed the need to consider heightened defense expenditures driven by geopolitical tensions.
However, critics are wary of the newly introduced flexibilities, arguing that they could slow the EU’s climate efforts. Environmental groups contend that reliance on international carbon credits merely shifts pollution to lower-income countries, thus not reducing it. Stientje van Veldhoven of the World Resources Institute noted that while the 90 percent target is bold, achieving the upper limit of the 2035 NDC (72.5 percent) is essential to maintain alignment with the 1.5°C global warming target. Failure to do so might result in an unmanageable deficit in emissions reduction. Resistance came from Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Poland, due to fears of negative impacts on their energy-intensive sectors. As part of the compromise, the new carbon market (ETS-2) has been deferred from 2027 to 2028.
With the EU’s internal position now clarified, the Union can enter COP30 with consolidated readiness. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen intends to leverage the conference to advocate for closing global ambition gaps and expediting the transition to clean energy. The focus now shifts to the European Parliament, where further definition and negotiation on the 2040 target will occur before it becomes legally enforceable, as reported by Reuters.