The United Nations Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan has issued a grave warning regarding the state of affairs in the country, highlighting that senior political and military leaders are pushing the nation toward a renewed full-scale war. This development risks unraveling the 2018 Revitalized Peace Agreement, which was designed to end the civil war that plagued South Sudan from 2013 to 2018. Patterns of aerial bombardment, sexual violence, forced recruitment of children, and ethnically targeted attacks, which could amount to war crimes, are rampant.
The Commission’s findings underscore the systematic undermining of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan, as armed actors consolidate power pre-election. Investigators have documented indiscriminate attacks on civilians, particularly in Upper Nile State, alongside reports of widespread sexual violence and child enlistment. The Commission warned that escalating inflammatory rhetoric by senior commanders might trigger mass atrocities, especially in regions already destabilized by intercommunal tensions.
The fragile peace framework, known as R-ARCSS, sought to establish a ceasefire and mandate the integration of rival armed forces. However, the implementation has stalled, creating factional competition as political appointments remain contested, and accountability mechanisms remain inactive. By August 2025, briefings to the Security Council described South Sudan as grappling with one of its worst humanitarian crises since independence, with millions facing acute food insecurity amidst ongoing militia violence and destruction of civilian infrastructure.
Political tensions have worsened, with opposition figures and allies of First Vice President Riek Machar facing detention and criminal charges, amplifying concerns about dwindling political freedoms. The conflict between Machar and President Salva Kiir has deepened, especially since Machar’s house arrest in early 2025, sowing doubt about the viability of the upcoming 2026 elections. This uncertainty extends to the peace agreement’s promises of constitutional reform and military integration, which remain unfulfilled.
By late January 2026, reports surfaced of senior military officials in Jonglei State endorsing “no quarter” rhetoric, advocating for indiscriminate violence against civilians. Such rhetoric, investigators warn, could incur liability under international humanitarian law as escalating troop movements and mass displacements indicate potential large-scale atrocities. This concern is further detailed by ongoing reports from UN officials describing elevated armed confrontations.