Just when you thought the debate surrounding a possible Trump vs. Biden election was robust enough, Mark Herrmann provides an insightful and equally provocative take in a recent piece on the widely-read legal blog, Above the Law.
Within the piece, Herrmann delves into the conventional wisdom of this hypothetical election scenario. One side of the debate posits that Trump cannot possibly win in the general election against Biden, with the belief that everyone who might vote for Trump is already committed. Moreover, this side believes Trump’s negative publicity and potential legal woes will only erode his popularity.
On the contrary, others argue that Trump cannot possibly lose against Biden. They believe Biden stands more chance of losing votes than Trump does, and potential pitfalls such as health scares or a stumbling economy could doom Biden’s election chances.
Herrmann, however, fascinatingly points out the several overlooked aspects of both sides’ arguments. First, he argues that Trump’s age could also cause him a health scare, which will inevitably influence some voters. He deftly stands by his prediction of potential violence influencing the election.
He also addresses the impact of Trump’s legal issues, specifically mentioning the E. Jean Carroll defamation trial. As Herrmann argues, Trump’s recent loss has potential to harm his reputation further. The author had already predicted this outcome, months ahead of Judge Kaplan ruling.
Finally, Herrmann examines the power of incumbency, contending that the control over certain events and their timing by the president (in this case, Biden) can have a far-reaching outcome. He highlights a fictional scenario involving Ukraine and Russia to underline his point, though it’s important to note the specific example is hypothetical.
Mark Herrmann has spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and is now a deputy general counsel at a large international company. He’s also the author of The Curmudgeon’s Guide to Practicing Law and Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy.
Significantly, Herrmann cautions against prematurely picking winners, reminding us of the vast time between now and next November. His article echoes the meta description of his post: “Both sides overlook several things.” It’s a relevant reminder that while predictions are rife, the complexities of the political and legal landscape mean that the outcome of the hypothetical Trump vs. Biden election remains up in the air.