The question as to whether generative artificial intelligence (AI) threatens the job security of lawyers and legal professionals remains a substantial conundrum for Big Law today. The future scenarios presented are not without their polar opposites: one where AI alleviates laborious tasks, and the other where it eliminates human contribution in certain roles. Disquieting figures from an April report by Goldman Sachs suggest that 44% of legal tasks could feasibly be assumed by AI technology, adding fuel to the fire for those within the profession who harbour fears about the impact of automation on job loss [1].
However, in a recent survey conducted by Citi Private Bank [2], 77% of law firm leaders predicted that lawyer leverage—the ratio of lawyers to equity partners—would experience “no effect” from AI by 2025. By 2035, more than one-third still expected no impact, but 53% thought AI would lead to a decrease in leverage.
Amplifying this optimistic prediction is Gretta Rusanow, managing director and head of advisory services at Citi Private Bank Law Firm Group. She anticipates that the composition of law firm leverage may change as AI is adopted for more tasks, with perhaps fewer junior associates but more senior lawyers allocating targeted advice [3].
Michael Gerstenzang, leader of Cleary Gottlieb, supports the positive scenario. He states that AI will help companies move away from the billable hour, reducing the need for “brute force” lawyering [4]. Ralph Baxter, a former leader of Orrick Herrington & Sutcliffe, also predicts an optimistic outcome, explaining that law firm clients have repeatedly demonstrated a willingness to pay firms for their services.
For AI to be happily embraced by law firms, a new approach to charging for their services needs to be devised. Firms need to build strong relationships with clients, ensuring that a foundation of trust is established that can enable discussions about changes in their workforce and their charging model. Only then, will their associates be readily expressing their gratitude to AI.