The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has issued a warning about the Persian Gulf crisis’s significant impact on global food security. According to Máximo Torero, Chief Economist for the FAO, the conflict has led to a rapid and severe disruption of global commodity flows. This turmoil demands urgent action to address food systems with strategic importance comparable to energy and transport sectors, emphasizing the need for alternative trade routes and financial support for import-dependent nations.
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for 35 percent of global crude oil flows, has experienced a more than 90 percent reduction in tanker traffic due to increased tensions. This decline has a profound effect on global fertilizer exports, particularly from Gulf countries such as Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar, which are key suppliers of urea and other nitrogen-based fertilizers. The disruption in shipping activity through the Strait is generating cascading effects on fuel and fertilizer prices, impacting agricultural production globally.
Sub-Saharan African countries that rely heavily on imported fertilizers are particularly vulnerable. Many farmers in these regions lack access to formal credit, limiting their ability to stockpile essential inputs ahead of potential disruptions. Countries like Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, currently in the midst of rice harvests, also face immediate challenges. Even Gulf countries such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, known for substantial food imports, are experiencing difficulties due to the impasse.
Migrants from South Asia and East Africa, who form a significant part of the workforce in Gulf countries, are also affected. The persistence of the conflict could lead to a decline in the remittances they send home, further exacerbating economic challenges in their native regions.
The closure of the strait follows a period of increased military activity, notably involving the United States and Israel, which led to the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader. In response, Ebrahim Jabari, a senior adviser to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, threatened retaliatory measures against vessels attempting to navigate the strait. Meanwhile, the Iranian Parliament is contemplating legislation to impose fees for safe passage, raising questions about the preservation of navigation rights under international law.
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